Friday, April 13, 2007

Warning: avoid these horses!

It is the Grand National tomorrow and I can tell everyone that the safest thing anyone can do is to avoid any horses I mention here. Every bet goes wrong, consistently.

Yesterday I bet on five horses. Two came second, for which I won 75 pence as I had him each way. The other three all fell. They had never fallen before. I had never nacked them before. Sure enough, the first day I back them is the first day they fall.

Today started with me not doing what I said I would on the BBC site, namely back the horse which carried and lost my money at Cheltenham. In the case, the horse was Aces Four, who, at 20-1, ran very well until almost falling at the third last when a close second, still second at the last but just run out of place money (1,2,3) in the run in to the post. Aces Four was favourite today at 2-1, on the basis of his run at Cheltenham but I decided ot have somefun with an old favourite Yes Sir, who was 33-1. And strangely enough Yes Sir ran exactly the same race that Aces Four ran at Cheltenham, in the lead all the way round, until headed by the winner three out, jumping the last in second and just missing out on third place (and a 25 pound pay-off for me) in the run in to the post. Incredible! Needless to say, Aces Four steamed it (won very very easily).

My fancies for the Grand National are, for the sake of the record, McKelvey (from the Yes Sir, Take The Stand and Ballycassidy stable of Peter Bowen), Joe's Edge (favourite and from the Aces Four stable) and Slim Pickings (at 33-1) and maybe Thisthatantother (at 100-1), although this list will probably have changed by tomorrow.


Can it get any worse? Sure.
I decide that in the second race I will put my money on Chief Dan George at 25-1. I click onto the betting site and it stalls and stalls. By the time it starts up again I cannot place my be because the race has started. Half waty through the race and the two favourites have a long lead and Chief Dan George is 'doing nothing 'according' to the commentator. However, the two up front have had quite a battle and start tiring and who should show up from miles behind? None other than Chief Dan George, who now comes along with awet sail and goes on to win. This is really getting VERY VERY frustrating.

OK, it DOES get better... The Topham Chase and I am thinking that Iron Man from the Peter Bowen stable ran quite well at Cheltenham and might be good value at 25-1 and I am fiddling around with the bet before deciding to halve it and put the other half on Peter Bowen's other runner, Dunbrody Millar also at 25-1, who has twice ran really well over the National fences. Dunbrody Millar takes off in the lead and Iron Man falls at the first fence. Dunbrody Millar stays in the lead, jumping the massive fences with ease, until the back straight where he looks as if he might get swallowed up by the others, but turning for home, he finds new energy, quickly takes the lead, jumps the last two fences magnificently and storms hoem to win by 5 lengths. Wow! That was so thrilling!

Mrs Bowen, the wife of the trainer says that Ballycassidy looks to have come back on form the past couple of weeks and could run well again, so I have split my winnings between two each way bets on BALLYCASSIDY at 40-1 Aand stablemate MCKELVEY at 16-1 and . You have been warned!

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